The most profitable actions: whether it is necessary to invest in stock market in June.

Monthly experts of leading Ukrainian investment companies predict, what actions of the company will most of all rise in price next month. Thus analysts give reason for the point of view the facts.

At the end месяца  Корреспондент.biz  публикует  the report on on how many percent rose in price or the actions specified by experts in a month fell in price.

One or two analysts who in the forecast were closest to real data on monthly results, remain among experts the next month and again do the forecast.

This month participation in a forecast accept: analyst ИК  Altana Kapital  Александр  Kushnarev, deputy director of department of investment consulting of Foyil Securities  Olga Maltsev и  analyst of the Broker house of Otkrytiye  Leonid Belozersky.

It should be noted that the stock market of Ukraine shows the last weeks very volatilny dynamics and decrease in quotations in this connection many experts don't risk is sharp to give forecasts. However this month in the Korrespondent.Biz project agreed to take participation the deputy director of department of investment consulting of Foyil Securities Olga Maltsev and Alexey Klimchuk from the TASK YOKES analytical department.

Forecast for June 2012 года: 

Olga Maltsev, deputy director of department of investment consulting of Foyil Securities

Action: Hartsyzsky pipe plant (HRTR) & nbsp;

Justification: As the situation in domestic stock market remains unstable, we can recommend purchase of the Ukrainian actions at formation only long-term портфеля.  In our opinion, triggers for growth of cost of liquid papers in June aren't present. However it is necessary to take into consideration the fact of a repro-reality of the market as the reason of possible emergence of a technical rebound which doesn't need to be confused to formation of a new trend. Besides on world trading platforms the nervousness caused by fears of rather further destiny of EU proceeds. In this regard we consider that in June of the market actions of Hartsizsky pipe plant (HRTR) will better look. It is connected with expectation of payment of dividends эмитентом  of 727 million UAH, or 0,28 UAH. on акцию  with otsechka date реес a Torah on June 14, 2012. After the specified date of the quotation on paper possibly essentially will decrease.

Alexey Klimchuk, TASK YOKES analytical department

Акция:  Центрэнерго (CEEN)

Justification:  At the current market conditions, the majority of domestic actions remain under bear pressure and, despite an essential pereprodanost continue to become cheaper. In our opinion, current month Tsentrenergo actions can show the greatest growth, privatization which auction of a controlling stake is appointed to June that can warm up interest to actions, as from small speculators, and large investors. Moreover, landslide falling of quotations of Tsentrenergo which is observed the last month of the auction, had no strong fundamental basis. Despite unprofitable 1кв2012 years, in the second quarter we expect profit at level of 96 million UAH., in connection with seasonal growth of the price of sale e/e in ORE made thermal power plant. And following the results of a year, according to our forecasts, the company will get profit at level of 173 million UAH, but thus volume of production will slightly decrease. Considering prompt falling of actions for last month, and estimating fair value of the company, we assume that the price of privatization will be above the current market price of 80-90 %.

& nbsp; * * *

As it was reported, following the results of the auction for May, 2012 an index of the Ukrainian actions, рассчитываемый  Ukrainian exchange, & nbsp; понизился  на -26,14 %  с  1 399,14  до  1 033,47  point. The total amount of the auction in May grew by UB на  32,61 %  and составил  2 811 562 245  UAH, and the total of transactions increased на  79,27 % that составило  248 489.

May was marked for the Ukrainian market by long falling. Abrupt dive was observed to the middle of month then the market managed to brake falling. & nbsp; at the beginning of the third decade even growth was observed, however it appeared fragile, and the index of UB closed month continuous распродажами.  & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;

Volume of the auction on the forward market of the Ukrainian exchange in a month составил  1 915 139 558  UAH. (1 728 101 contracts) that на  81,38 %  more than last month. The number of transactions grew на  116,09 %  and составило  197 339. Volume of the auction by securities in a month составил  896 422 686  UAH. (from them volume of the auction by actions - 791 638 771 UAH.), and number of the transactions concluded at the exchange in May, составило  51 150.


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This material has exclusively information character and can't be considered as the recommendation, the offer or motivation to get or sell securities, and also other financial instruments. The estimates given in this forecast reflect personal opinion of analysts and aren't the recommendation to purchase or sale of these or those securities. This material doesn't express opinion of edition.

Financial forecast for June.

The end of spring — the beginning of summer appeared "hot" for the financial markets of Europe. "Fever" because of statements of the Greek authorities for a possible exit of the country from euro zone there became aggravated. Oils added statements of the French president to fire that the European Union should continue to borrow money, getting into new debts. We decided to take an interest, how these events can strike on our pocket. Besides, we asked experts, whether it is necessary to wait for good news in June — the beginning of July. Answers to these questions — in our "Investportfel".

The DOLLAR is STABLE. In comparison with the beginning of May the selling rate of cash dollar "was a little tightened" — for 7 kopeks, with 8,04 to 8,11 UAH/$. As the head of department of planning and budgeting of «Bank ERDE» Rostislav Beregy explained, it became a consequence of its "dancing" in the interbank market: sometimes it reached a mark of 8,10 UAH/$. And on Mezhbank, in turn, the dollar was in the price because in May less currency came to the country, than in April.

EURO: EVEN CHEAPER. As well as our experts predicted, problems of eurozone and disagreement of the authorities of the European countries rendered to eurocurrency an ill turn. The whole month its course fell concerning dollar. For May of euro in Ukraine began to sell for 55 kopeks cheaper: its course» fell in exchangers with 10,67 to 10,12 UAH/euros. And since the beginning of June the eurocurrency rose in price for 15 kopeks, to 10,27 UAH/euros. But analysts look at these insignificant fluctuations skeptically. In their opinion, soon euro will become cheaper still.

DEPOSITS: MONTH OF CALM

In May, as well as expected experts, according to National Bank data, short-term deposits (for 1 — 6 month) in hryvnia rose in price a little, on 0,3 %: with 16,3 to 16,6 % per annum, and in currency remained at the same level — 6,7 % per annum. Thus long-term deposits, contrary to forecasts, "gave" in the price a little. "Long" (for 9 — 18 months) deposits fell in price: in hryvnia for 1 % — with 18,4 to 17,4 %, and in currency — for 0,4 %, with 8,4 to 8,0 % per annum. READ IN MORE DETAIL

GOLD: GROWTH IS POSSIBLE

Forecasts of our experts came true and in the gold market. In May its price constantly fluctuated, but month as a whole finished decrease. And this falling was historically the longest for the last years. The gram of yellow metal in Ukraine in a month fell in price on 20 UAH — with 445 to 425 UAH/g However, at the beginning of June it did attempts to grow in the price for some hryvnias. But they didn't crown success — gold cost now "was again rolled away" to level of 425 UAH/g.

The dollar exchange rate jumped up up.

The euro exchange rate to dollar decreases during the auction of Friday - investors are reserved by the American currency possessing the status of a reliable asset, waiting for results of parliamentary elections of Greece on June 17, data of the auction testify.

By 18.40 Moscow time euro fell in price to dollar to 1,2619 dollars for euro about 1,2633 dollars for euro a day earlier. To Japanese currency the dollar exchange rate fell to 78,74 yens for dollar against 79,35 yens for dollar by the end of the previous auction. The dollar exchange rate to a basket of six currencies of the countries - the main trading partners of the USA decreased by 0,17 % - to 81,74 points.

In case of a victory of Left-wing radical coalition СИРИЗА the risk of a rupture of agreements of Greece with the international creditors that can cause the exit of the state first in the history from eurozone is great. "The price of this exit will be too high both for Greece, and for the currency union. The banking system of the country will fall off. There will be a threat of distribution of debt crisis on other economy", - the analyst of Barclays Capital Antonio Garcia Pascual (Antonio Garcia Pascual) quoted by MarketWatch agency argues.

At the same time, appeal of dollar decreased after an exit of a fresh portion of statistical data in the USA, testifying to remaining problems at the largest economy of the world a little. Industrial production in the country decreased last month by 0,1 % though growth by the same figure was expected.

The index of consumer moods reflecting degree of trust of households to economy, in June went down, by an initial assessment, to 74,1 points about 79,3 points in May. Analysts assumed that the indicator will fall only to 77,5 points.

"I do not know, the average American is how informed on a situation in Europe, however at investors this subject constantly is in the attention center, as well as problems on a labor market", - the senior economist of Ameriprise Financial Inc told. in Detroit Russell Prays (Russell Price).

Why to Greeks Apocalypse?

Financial crisis in the European Union, apparently, will soon develop into crisis of relationship.
Such conclusions involuntarily come to mind when you read a tape of world news. So, one of these days Greece riveted again attention of all planet on the modest person: the authorities of the country decided to hold a referendum during which should be made the decision – to accept or not to accept the anti-recessionary help from European Union member countries.

Let's remind, a week ago at EU summit in Brussels the European leaders in a course more than ten-hour meeting developed the plan of rescue of Greece from a default. In particular, it was offered to write off 50 % of debts or 100 billion euro at the expense of banks and other private creditors. Besides, there was a speech about increase in the second program of the help of Greece in the sum with 100 to 130 billion euro.

As a whole, many politicians and experts apprehended these anti-recessionary mechanisms positively, having called these decisions essential break in fight against the European crisis. So, the prime minister of Greece Yorgos Papandreou noted that the state managed to avoid the worst scenario of succession of events. «We have a possibility to settle a score past. From the Greek people at last remove cargo and transfer it on banks», - the prime minister noted.

However, apparently, reaction of the Greek authorities appeared only temporary mask, after all already literally in couple of days after the Bruxelles arrangements of Athena struck pose and declared convocation of a national referendum. What forced Greeks, roughly speaking, to rear?

Everything is simple: in a barrel of honey of anti-recessionary offers for Greece the European leaders added also an essential spoon of tar in the form of introduction of control over the implementation of the budgetary program of the country for the purpose of ensuring the correct use of the new credits with them. In other words, though EU also threw to Greeks rolling in debts a saving financial circle, Europe decided to provide to the country and "navigator" who not only wouldn't allow to spend money in vain, but also would conduct the Greek ship on accurately set anti-recessionary way.

Such plan of rescue suited to Greeks obviously not to taste, after all control strengthening over the country from EU actually would turn Greece into the semi-dependent state. Here Hellas also decided to use force of a national voice in fight for the freedoms. In principle, it is possible to understand the point of view of Greeks.

However there is one essential "but". Economic instability of Greece can lead to the second wave of world financial crisis. Therefore taking into account so high risks Greeks also could bite tongue. After all, посудите who is guilty in deepening of debt crisis of Eurozone? In many respects, Greece, is more true – its indiscipline.

The fact which some time ago shocked political elite of Europe can become confirmation to that. It is a question of scandalous jugglings Greeks of financial reports касаемо states of the economy of the country. In other words, what turns out? Eurozone and IMF fondly helped money to poor Greeks, and those, in turn, quietly lived at the expense of external loans, not especially aspiring to carry out recommendations of creditors касаемо a country conclusion from crisis. In this light the decision of the European politicians on control strengthening over improvement of the Greek economy is absolutely logical.

In the light of the difficult relations of EU and Greece the new heat which poured out in the statement for carrying out by Greeks of a national referendum, - already surprises nobody. However, as for a long time it is clear, ellinets – the people cunning. Respectively, they also "swagger" with an ulterior motive. There is an opinion: by means of a referendum and other mechanisms Greeks want to bargain. They pursue what purposes as a result? The first: EU should give carte blanche to the country. The second: big privileges, for example, in the form of write-off of 100 % of debts should be provided to Greeks.

And why also isn't present? Taking into account that today the external debt of Greece makes about 350 billion euro, - it is clear that on accounts it would be desirable to pay not especially. By the way, if this fabulous sum to divide into all citizens of Greece (the population – about 11 million people), it will turn out that each of them – from the baby to the old man – owes about 31 thousand euros. Here also leaves, each citizen of Greece is terribly interested in release from a debt yoke.

What to tell? In the desires and inability to distinguish a reality from a fantasy, the Greek authorities, apparently, went too far. Already today the initiative of Greeks concerning carrying out a national referendum brought into shock not only the European politicians, but also world economists. After all if Greece refuses the anti-recessionary plan which developed EU for it, such step a priori can bring in a default not only this country. On a domino effect Italy and Spain can fall down in an abyss of crisis and other problem economy of Eurozone, first of all. Also that then? The European Union hardly will bear so powerful blow on the - relative - stability. Whether France and Germany can with financial support of IMF and such countries, such as, China to prevent the beginning of the second wave of world financial crisis? Not fact. And it can quite become the beginning of the European economic apocalypse.

About that self-admiration of Greeks can cost much to the whole world, says, for example, that fact that the euro exchange rate already devaluates, and stock markets of the same of the USA already seriously gave. And it only the first reaction of world economy to the statement of Greeks about carrying out a national referendum. And for that to wait, if Greece really refuses the European plan of rescue? Even it is terribly to present. As though as a result it was not necessary to give up as a bad job the idea of expediency of existence of the European Union …

However hardly leaders of EU will allow Greeks to realize such scenario of succession of events. It is thought, patience of the European politicians already on an outcome. Therefore their reaction to threats from Greece for certain won't keep itself waiting long. As possibility to discuss the arisen problems at heads of states of EU will appear soon at the summit of the Big twenty.

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Russian banks are not ready to return to the crisis.

Banks of the Russian Federation were not ready to repeat the crisis events that occurred in 2008. It is reported by the newspaper "Vedomosti", referring to the stress test of the Bank of Russia.For example, if the repeated shocks to the market, almost a third of Russian banks have violated regulations of the Central Bank, after which the regulator would have to deny them a license. For example, a stress test of the Central Bank showed that in this scenario, the banking system could lose almost half of its capital.The scenario laid in a stress test of the Bank of Russia provides an outflow of deposits at the level of 10-20% (as it was in October 2008). Stock indices have to fail at 50% and the ruble - to depreciate by 20% (in 2008, RTS and MICEX lost 71.4 and 66.5%, respectively, and the ruble has depreciated by 16.8%).The Central Bank has estimated that due to the increase of the delay of loans banks could lose almost a quarter of the capital. In addition, the depreciation of securities the banks will deprive another 12.7% of the capital, and the outflow of customer and interbank lending takes another 13.8% of the capital. As a result, 321 of the bank capital adequacy ratio falls below the minimum level of 10%. At these banks, the Central Bank estimates, accounts for 50.8% of banking system assets.Experts point out that raising capital in the banks seem to spell a loved one, when in the course are any tricks.

What are the competitions for Forex Traders.

Perhaps those who had to deal with the Forex market, surely heard about the competition of traders. Now there are many brokers and dealing centers conduct a variety of enticing tournaments, as this is a unique marketing tool to attract new customers. However, not every trader is able to understand the conditions of competition, which sometimes do not quite match the description. So, let's see with what are forex contests.Dealing centers conducting competitions, which can be divided into certain groups. The first group - the simplest contests is used, as they say, to "disperse". These contests are clear even for the absolute beginner market, and tend to have a modest prize. Such programs do not require traders to specific knowledge and experience. In fact, to participate in such tournaments, and knowledge is not needed - most importantly have a passion and luck.The second group of competitions designed to have an experienced and skilled Forex traders - people who are developing their own trading strategies, scripts, indicators, etc. Typically, these contests have several stages, for example - competition for the best trading robot or trading strategy. Anyone whose product shows the best trading results in a certain period of time and receive the grand prize, which is not comparable with those that involve "unpretentious" contests.And the last group for those traders who are really professionals and they are no longer interested in trading for themselves, and plans to receive the management of large capital. For these traders, major brokerage firms offer to try his hand on the PAMM-accounts. Such conditions do contests rather qualifying tournaments, the results of which, the company selected professional managers, to expand the list of trustees. The main prize in the competition - serious capital, percentage of profits, etc.

Trader

Who is a trader? I want to highlight the concept of a trader to submit it in my mind. Since I myself am a trader, I find it easier to explain to you what it means. In my concept of a trader - a person who trades in the foreign exchange market and securities market. His challenge to make a profit when trading. Such a problem for all people who are engaged in trade, but it is different exchange them his goods are money.

The trader sells the money - it's his job, he exchanges the money: one currency for another. His task is to determine which currency will rise in price, and which will fall on its solution depends almost everything. When he makes a mistake, his mistake is a lot of money, since it works with large sums.

If he is a beginner, then the amount with which he works is much smaller, but he dreams of earning big money, and he has every reason to do so.

To become a trader: Do not need a large store of knowledge, do not need a degree, work experience in the enterprise, you just need to want it.

To do this he must desire and action. When a person really wants something, he starts to act, and act very effectively. To become a trader you have to really want it and be prepared to spend time on it, a lot of time.
You'll have to read a lot, a lot of thinking, much to try. Sit for hours for the schedule of rates, with a book at hand, reading a book and checking the information from a book on the chart. You have to become a scientist, painstakingly researching the schedule rates.

The more you do, the better you will become a trader. He is first and foremost a scientist, every day looking for new horizons of knowledge. Let him have a strategy by which it works, but every time he looks at the schedule, he is looking for something new, looking for something that can bring him more money. His work - investigation.

He must know what he wants. If he wants $ 1,000 a month, it must develop a strategy that will bring him the thousand in a month. It may take 5 points daily, and 20 days of work, he earns 100 points, which equals $ 1,000, maybe once every few days to count and take a greater number of points. This is a personal matter, everything in his hands.

If he ever has to drive somewhere, it will develop a strategy that will allow him to do it. Will open the bid and keep it for several days. Another couch potato, likes to sit at home, look at the schedule, it will suit a few bets on the day of 5-30 points, and last month it would take a lot of points.

The trader - a scientist, his task is to study the market.

To become a scientist: you need to begin to explore the market, follow the schedule, read books, find a teacher in the end, that will teach you that guides you through all possible errors in a fast pace and takes you to the finish line, where you'll earn money, big money.

It determines the amount of cash from himself. It can equate 1 point to 10 rubles, can a $ 1 to $ 10 to $ 100 to $ 1000. The more he investigates the market, the more he can earn money.

Stock market game.

Stock market game is a kind of art. But no ordinary art, an art to follow that strategy.

Gambling should be conducted according to plan, the Exchange is not a casino, where to bet at random and begin to pray, to fell the selected number. Gambling is a serious and responsible. During the gambling you check yourself for resistance, seriousness and responsibility. Only you determine the size of your deposit, what amount will be added to it, which will be taken away, but you are responsible for it.

In gambling, your task is to choose a strategy and follow it. The strategy for gambling is the most important. It is impossible to gambling without a clear strategy. You can not turn the stock market casino. If you do not have a strategy, gambling is a casino. Once you do, your entire deposit is burned in a few trades. With me were so many times, but I learned a lesson, and what you want.

Gambling is not a game in the casino, it's work. You have to take gambling seriously. In this case, gambling should be for you a comfortable and enjoyable.

And so, for a successful gambling strategy and a clear need to follow it.

Where do we get this strategy? It is necessary to develop it. All people are different, I have often written about this, and if one is able to play one strategy or the other can not due to various circumstances (no time to sleep hunting, tired of sitting at a computer, a favorite restaurant or calling in to the park and etc.)

Gambling will simply force you to develop a strategy, if not now, then in due course. You can not win consistently without a strategy, without a clearly painted the rules of opening and closing. I'm not even talking about feet and taking profits.

So, what do you need to develop a strategy? Need to take the time to the forex market, sit behind schedule a couple months, experimenting with indicators, trend lines, read books, and most important is to find a mentor. Although the latter is very difficult to do - no one wants to share their strategies, which have been developed with great difficulty. At one time, I could not find a mentor, so I had to pave the way myself.

Stock market game teaches you to think, make plans and execute them.

What should be the strategy that you received from its use of money? First of all, it should suit you. You must select a currency, time period of the chart, as well as the tools that you want to use for gambling.

All of this must necessarily be written on paper made into a business plan. That is, there should be sections:
currency
conditions of open positions
conditions of closing the position,
possible size of the loss
number of allowable losses in a row
profit taking,
number of simultaneous open positions
lot size.

This is not ideal, but you can navigate.

Gambling makes a person a businessman who is fully responsible for their actions.

If the strategy is profitable, and you follow it completely, then you can call a professional trader, as you earn money. And make money at gambling, only professionals.

Stock market game is not complicated, I wrote about this many times, you just need to give it time. If you read this, it means you are interested in trading on the stock exchange, then you need something out of life. If all this is so, then do not wait, start immediately, download from the Internet for forex books, read them, try, do not expect anything, but you can earn money for themselves and become a little more free in this world. Not tomorrow, right now download his first book, open a demo account first (it's a regular account, but you do not play for real money, and the virtual) in a company you like and place your bets, win, lose, analyze your every bet. The more you are going to do, the clearer in your mind you will pick out your future strategy, the faster you will be able to formulate it and move on paper, and, therefore, start earning money.

The game offers a chance to exchange all, your task is simply to do it.

I am now reminded of an episode, it's called "Shoot." In one series, was a person engaged in network marketing, and he's very funny to answer questions.

- How are you so changed his life?

- I just decided to change it and changed!

- But how did you do that?

- I just did it!

- In what way?

- I just realized that I must change, and I did it!

It was very funny and at the same time very instructive.

Just decide what you will become a professional trader, earning money on the forex market, and start doing it.

Playing the Stock Exchange will become your pleasure, you will become a professional and you will enjoy playing on the exchange. I wish you good luck!

Dollars not been enough for someone work in the U.S.

Ruble k opustylsya dollar by 21 kopeyku to 29.8 rubles, against the backdrop obvalyvshyhsya prices for Oil. Medlennoe restoration economy U.S. and Europe vomiting neftyanыe quotes fevralskym k value, - $ 98.49 for WTI and amerykanskuyu $ 113.18 per severomorskuyu Brent. By the end of May ruble prodolzhyt deshevet, prohnozyruyut Experts.

Official dollar, Establishing a Central Bank to mayskye holidays, rose by 21.4 kopeyky, to 29.81 rubles. The official euro rate by 13.2 podnyalsya kopeyky, to 39.05 rubles. The ruble continued to homework k byvalyutnoy Cart: EE cost of 18 cents vыrosla and ripened 33.97 33.79 rubles against the ruble on Friday.

Since the beginning Nedeli ruble poteryal k 44 kopeyky dollar, euro k - 23 kopeyky. In natsyonalnuyu currency presses Negative vneshnyy background: the myrovыh fondovыh and sыrevыh sites continues padenye.
On of the last session of the U.S. NASDAQ poteryal 2,25%, Dow Jones - 1,27%, Standard & Poor's - 1,61% because of slaboy statistics on labor market. In April, employment in the United States vыrosla of 115 thousand of jobs against ozhydaemoho growth by 165 thousand. British FTSE 100 fell by 1.93%, hermanskyy DAX - on 1,99%, is French CAC - by 1.9% against the backdrop of recession Delovoy activity. In April post index PMI (Business activity in promproyzvodstve) for 17 countries evrozonы snyzylsya by 1.8 points compared with March and amounted to 45.9 points.

In the outcome of cost yyunskoho futures on amerykanskuyu Oil WTI collapsed to $ 4.05, to $ 98.49 a barrel, first time with February opustyvshys lower than $ 100. Yyunskyy futures on severomorskuyu Brent, On the basis kotoroy is determined by the price of Oil rossyyskuyu, podeshevel at $ 2.9 to $ 113.18 a barrel. "Oil desheveet samыmy bыstrыmy by ïîñëåäíèé mesyatsы rate", - said analyst "TKB Capital" Sergei Karыhalyn.
"The next movement for WTI tselyamy Submissions may be gender value, $ 96-97,5, and for Brent - $ 109,6-112,8 a barrel" - otmechaetsya in analytical notes "Aten."

"Finance Russian ruble weakness finger zhertvoy markets. Now, once rolled in kotorыy fly, we are entering a phase of weakness realnoy economy, something presses on fondovыe area and raw materials. Not udyvytelno nablyudat increase in sales rublevыh aktyvov and leaving in more than otnosytelno lykvydnыe dollarovыe "- said analyst Alexander FxPro Kuptsykevych.
"The results ïîñëåäíèé meetings of Federal surplus system and the European Central Bank it became known that the New Projects эtapы smyahchenyya us waiting that the yavlyaetsya povыshennoho factor of demand for edynuyu evropeyskuyu currency and in dollar" - dobavlyaet Senior analyst Department of analysts and risk-menedzhmeta UFS Investment Company Alexei Kozlov.

By the end of May, the ruble could continue this decline, believe the Experts.
"In the coming A few week a situation will change significantly: statystycheskye DATA will be otnosytelno slabыmy. Resumption of growth of the economy of Europe and Novoe ozhyvlenye in the United States - Case otdalennoho buduscheho. Therefore byvalyutnaya basket could Growing Up in predelah 34-34,5 ruble "- obъyasnyaet analyst« Allianz ROSNO Manage Assets "Aryэl Black. "Given that the beginning of the year with Finance Russian ruble, mainly ukreplyalsya, predpolozhyt possible that the decline could Course prodlytsya else nekotoroe time, especially, if not simultaneously poyavyatsya pryznaky uluchshenyya situation in Europe and will begin again to grow is the price of Oil. Blyzhayshaya goal - 30 rubles per $ 1 "- sohlashaetsya Senior Economist Treasury Bank" Renaissance "Michael Berulav.

Exchange rate and exchange rate policy.

The need for exchange rate determined by the fact that national money outside the domestic market can not act as legal tender. In foreign trade transactions, they must be exchanged for currency of another country or international payment unit (ECU, SDR, etc.). correct determination of the exchange rate is crucial to ensure equivalence, mutual benefit in relations eknomichnyh sub ¢ objects from different countries. Through the concept of the national currency the central bank affects the balance of the country and uses it as a tool of monetary policy.

Exchange rate ¾ is the ratio at which one currency is exchanged for another, or the price of the currency of one country expressed in the currency of another country.

The exchange rate reflects the interaction among national and global economy. It is used when buying and selling currency in connection ¢ connection with exports and imports of goods and services comes into the country or overseas exportation of capital, credit, income and more.

The functions of the exchange rate.

The theory of money determines the exchange rate following functions:

First, for his help overcome the economic limitations of the national currency. The transformation of local values ​​in an international. Accordingly, the exchange rate serves as a means of internationalization of financial relations, the formation of the global monetary system.

Second, based on exchange rates by comparing the value of individual countries, conditions and results of industrial reproduction ¾ labor productivity, wages, growth and balance of payments of the country.

Third, using the exchange rates compared to domestic prices with world prices and international rates. Exchange rate ¾ is a mechanism of international value of goods and services.

Fourth, through the mechanism of exchange rate redistributed national product between member countries of international economic connections ¢ functions.
Acts as a means of comparison of price comparison on-redistribution

internationalization of structures and results-tional and national pro-

monetary relations tativ international industrial prod uct between countries

reproduction cost, pricing, nation-performing

individual countries and world-tional foreign

Market Relations

Types of foreign exchange.

In economic theory considered two main types of exchange rates: fixed and floating. Besides these two there are several options that vary depending on options chosen specifically for their realization may be considered as a modification of a fixed or floating rate. This is a set of so-called range of variations (band) between the top and bottom points of intervention in the Ukrainian language was called "currency corridor". Moreover, the so-called fixed-variable model (creeping placement of ¢ yazkoyu to fixed) rate (in English ¾ crawling yet).

Various options exchange rates can be classified according to the scheme 20.1.

In practice, used as hybrid versions of the fixed or floating rate ¾ is the official, market, stock, etc..

After World War II under the Bretton Woods Agreement was introduced regime of fixed parities and exchange. Fixed exchange played a crucial role in 1976, when they were determined on the basis of the gold parity or contract basis. Due to the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system of fixed exchange rates and parities were removed and set to floating exchange rates. However, freely "float" only major currency ¾ U.S. dollar, the mark of Germany, the French franc, British pound, Japanese yen and others. They formed themselves in the market influenced by supply and demand. States may by mutual agreement the scope of their voyage. Most countries have established a managed floating exchange rate for that now there are several options for fixing rate: ¢ deviations property to its basket of currencies, property ¢ deviations to one of the leading currency, gradual devaluation of the exchange rate within the corridor.

Foreign exchange transactions. Quotations of currencies.

On the interbank market or on the foreign exchange purchases and sales of foreign currency carried out by quoting rates. Quotes - is officially set by the central bank market rate (price) natsionalnoy currency to foreign currency on the day of operations. In other words, stock exchange - is to establish a market rate of the day.

When selling and buying of the currency banks differentiate level courses, "rate the seller" is set higher than the rate "buyer". The full quote includes the bid and asked prices, according to which the bank buys or sells foreign currency to national. Buy rate thus calculated based on the level of rate of sold currency and exchange, under which made the sale, according to the formula:

CC = OK (OK: CP)

where

CC - purchase rate;

OK - the official rate;

MP - selling rate on request.

The difference between bid and asked - "margin" - the source of the income from which covered costs and provided the bank profits from foreign exchange transactions. Moreover, because foreign exchange transactions temperature ¢ associated with some risk, margin somewhat used to foreign exchange risk insurance.

There are two methods of quotations of foreign currency to national - direct and indirect. Most countries vykorytsovuye direct quotation. In direct kotyrovtsi cost per unit or 100 units of foreign currency denominated in local currency. When indirect kotyrovtsi unit adopted the national currency exchange rate which is expressed in a certain amount of foreign currency. Indirect quote - this is the reciprocal of a straight kotyrovtsi. Indirect quote is used mainly in the UK. In the U.S., for internal purposes using the principle of direct quotations, and in the international field of American banks used method of indirect quotations for many currencies except the pound sterling.

You can consider an example of course the seller and buyer in direct and indirect kotyrovtsi exchange such examples.

Example 1.

New York to London (direct quote):

A £ - 1.6427 dollars. The U.S. rate buyer, 1 £ - 1.6437 dollars. USA - rate the seller.

Bank of New York wants to sell pounds sterling, while receiving more national currency (1.6437), and buying them pay less than the number of (1.6427).

Example 2.

New York to Frankfurt am Main (indirect quote):

$ 1. USA - 1.7973 mark-year vehicles, $ 1. USA - 1.7983 marks - rate the buyer.

Bank of New York, selling stamps FRH, wants to pay less for every dollar makes FRH (1.7973) and get them more when buying (1.7983).

The procedure for quotes, which is by sequential comparison of supply and demand for each currency is called "fixing". On the basis of fixing rates established by the seller and buyer, which are published in official gazettes. In operations on the interbank foreign exchange market quote is conducted mainly against the U.S. dollar, as it is international money transfer and backup tool.

Exchange operations with cash foreign currency carried out through cross-rate.

Cross-rate - the ratio between two currencies is determined by their rate to a third currency.

Thus, the calculation of cross-rate for the Ukrainian hryvnia can be made as follows:

To date the official exchange rate is:

Ukrainian Hryvnia / U.S. Dollar - X USD. the dollar;

Ukrainian Hryvnia / mark Germany - Y USD. by brand;

then cross-dollar mark in Germany is:

X / Y German for one American dollar.

If the bank (client) wants this day to exchange (N) U.S. dollars for German marks, then subject to cross-rate it can get:

N · (X / Y) DM.

Exchange operations with cash foreign currency are made entirely of currencies belonging to the group of "hard currency".

21.3. Types of currency transactions.

In the foreign exchange market using two groups of transactions: cash and time. Cash transactions are carried out under the "spot" (spot). Operation "spot" - an agreement on the sale of foreign currency in the short term preriod. Shipping exchange is carried out after the conclusion of the agreement, but not later than two business days. Accordingly, the exchange rate is determined and "spot"-course towards the conclusion of the agreement. There are two "spot" exchange for currency: demand rate (big rate) - rate at which the customer can buy one currency in exchange for another year and offers (offer rate) - rate at which the customer can sell one currency in exchange for another .

The second type of operation is vvalyutnyh time or forward (forward), which schub ¢ objects market are entitled to buy or sell currency in the future at the exchange rate fixed at the time of the transaction. Forward transaction includes three main elements: commitment ¢ commitments to buy or sell a certain amount of currency in exchange for another, its implementation (delivery of currency) in time, alyutnyy rate is fixed at the time of concluding the agreement. Forward foreign currency exchange rates differ from the "spot" on the value of "discount" or "premium" ¢ temperature due to the deferred payments.


Time currency transactions are closely associated with ¢ interest rates on short-term deposits. Forward exchange rate tends to increase when interest rates currency exchange are lower than interest rates kontrahentnoyi currency. Conversely, the currency of the country where bank interest rate will be higher in forward operations appropriate "discount." At the same rate of bank currency exchange regulator percent is "spot"-course.

In international practice, most countries focused on the pond "LIBOR" (London: jnter Bank Offered Rate) - interest on interbank deposits in London.

Calculation of the premium / discount to the forward rate can be done flrmuloyu:

CV (% a -% A) · SF

P / D = ----------- where

360 · 100

KB - "spot" exchange rate-for-sale

% B - rate "LIBOR" on deposits in the currency required to purchase

% A - rate "LIBOR" on deposits in foreign currency, goods,

SF - term forward transactions.

For example, commercial bank wants to sell $ 10,000 per Pound with delivery in six months. Spot rate:

1 dollar = 0.58 f.sterl., Rates "LIBOR" for dollars - 3.8%, and by fax. sterling. - 6%.

Then:

0.58 · (6 - 3.8) · 180

P / D = ----------- = 0.0032.

360 · 100

Forward rate = 0.58 + 0.0032 = 0.5832.

Cost of sales is 5832 f.sterl. for $ 10,000.

The second example. Rate "LIBOR" for deposits in Euro is 35% per annum, and the dollar - 10%. Course price USD - 1.9 UAH.

If the Ukrainian bank wants to buy $ 10,000 for the rate of delivery in a month, then theoretically premium vehicles in Euro can be:

(35 - 10) · 1.9 · 30

---------- = 0.04.

360 · 100

Price of $ 10,000. = 10000 · 1.94 = 19,400 USD.

Term or forward transactions are used to profit in the form of exchange differences, as well as insurance sub ¢ of the market from currency risks. In addition, operations at the time - is a broad field of foreign exchange dealers who are game to increase or decrease in market rates.

Ekonomіchnі іndikatori

Іndikatori Velikobritanії
Budіvnitstvo novih budinkіv (Housing starts)

Vіdobrazhaє kіlkіst novih budinkіv, budіvnitstvo yakih vzhe broach.
Got obmezheny vpliv on rinok.

Gross vnutrіshnіy product (Gross domestic product (GDP)

Suma viroblenih in kraїnі tovarіv i poslug, virazhenih in tsіnah. Vpliv іndikatora on rinok zmenshuєtsya what scho yogo values ​​zazvichay prognozuєtsya Rinko on osnovі іnshih Transfer, and takozh vnaslіdok quiet, reusable yakі peredivlyayutsya zі values ​​of GDP pіslya tickle vihodu.
Vihodit schokvartalu.

Vartіst robochoї silica (Unit wage costs)

Yakscho Tempe zrostannya vartostі robochoї silica perevischuyut Tempe zrostannya produktivnostі pratsі, the Tse viklikaє іnflyatsіyny ekonomіku vise.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Got obmezheny vpliv on rinok.

Bezrobіttya (Unemployment (Claimant count rate))

Claimant count - kіlkіst applicant bezrobіtnih on pratsevlashtuvannya zaynyatostі centers.
Chim nizhche bezrobіttya, team bіlshіy kіlkostі people paying salaries to the scho vplivaє zrostannya іnflyatsії.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Іndikator priymaєtsya Rinko uwagi up.

Defіtsit Budget (Public sector borrowing requirement (PSBR))

Rіznitsya mіzh income i vitratami kraїni budget.
Got a great Іndikator not vplivu on rinok.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.

Halfpenny M4 (pokaznik obsyagu groshovoї masi) (M4 money supply)

Chastіshe vikoristovuєtsya pokaznik zmіni groshovoї masi. Vklyuchaє ob'єm gotіvkovoї currencies obіgu, zagalnu bag kreditіv, vidanih banks and takozh bag zapozichen Uryadov. M4 vvazhaєtsya good іndikatorom rіvnya іnflyatsії.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Іndikator priymaєtsya Rinko uwagi up.

Ekonomіchny eyeing Britanskoї Konfederatsії Promislovtsіv (CBI industrial trends)

After looking (at formі digits) vіdobrazhaє dіlovy attitude bіznesmenіv s going to drive virobnichogo ekonomіki sector. After looking forward not Got zv'yazku s real prospects rozvitku ekonomіki.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Іndikator priymaєtsya Rinko uwagi up.

Ekonomіchny eyeing Britanskoї Konfederatsії Promislovtsіv (CBI distributive trades)

After looking (at formі digits) vіdobrazhaє dіlovy attitude bіznesmenіv vіdnosno torgіvelnoї area. After looking forward not Got zv'yazku s real prospects rozvitku ekonomіki.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Іndikator priymaєtsya Rinko uwagi up.

Zrostannya serednogo zarobіtku (Average earnings growth)

Іndikator rozrahovuєtsya Way oblіku zrostannya zarobіtkіv for three ostannі mіsyatsі (vrahovuyutsya vsі viplati, yakі dіysno zroblenі boule not "narahovanі"). Є pokaznikom maybutnogo rіvnya іnflyatsії, oskіlki zrostannya zarobіtkіv (yakscho not stink kompensovanі zrostannyam produktivnostі pratsі) ∈ cause zrostannya tsіn.
S Є one viznachalnih іndikatorіv, zgіdno s yakimi Bank Anglії viznachaє rіven interest rates.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Got on the digit vpliv rinok.

Іndeks rozdrіbnih tsіn (Retail price index (RPI)

Viznachaє zmіnu rіvnya tsіn the "basket" tovarіv spozhivannya. Pokaznikom rіvnya іnflyatsії є іndeks rozdrіbnih tsіn without vrahuvannya platezhіv interest on loans for pridbannya neruhomostі (RPI-X). Іndeks rozdrіbnih tsіn, rozrahovany to єdinіy formulі for porіvnyannya s analogіchnimi іndeksami in іnshih kraїn, nazivaєtsya garmonіzovanim (HICP). Yakscho Tempe zrostannya іndeksu perevischuyut zaplanovane value, the bank zazvichay Anglії pіdvischuє protsentnі rates.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Got on the digit vpliv rinok.

Іndikator doslіdnitskogo іnstitutu popitu i Offers (Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply) (Purchasing managers index (PMI)

Vіdobrazhaє zmіnu Promyslova virobnitstva. Values ​​іndikatora vische 50% vіdobrazhaє zrostannya tempіv Promyslova virobnitstva, nizhche 50% - upovіlnennya.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Іndikator priymaєtsya Rinko uwagi up.

Obsyag Promyslova virobіv (Industrial output (Industrial production))

Vklyuchaє obsyag vipusku obroblyuvalnoї promislovostі (manufacturing output), and takozh vrahovuє obsyagi vipusku such Galuza, yak vidobutok i pererobka korisnih copaline, public utility gospodarstvo. Є іndikatorom ekonomіchnogo zrostannya. Іndikator є viznachalnim not to directly rozvitku ekonomіki, oskіlki bіlshe vnutrіshnogo 60% of the gross product per hour in the Danian zabezpechuє poslug area.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Іndikator priymaєtsya Rinko uwagi up.

Obsyag produktsії, vipuschenoyu obroblyuvalnoyu promislovіstyu, virazheny in tsіnah (Manufacturing output)

Іndikator ekonomіchnogo zrostannya. Values ​​for іndikatora rink - Neznachny. Contribution from obroblyuvalnoї promislovostі vnutrіshnіy GDP skladaє ostannіm hour less then 20%.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Іndikator priymaєtsya Rinko uwagi up.

Promislovі tsіni "on vihodі" (Producer output prices (PPI output))

Viznachaєtsya yak zmіna rіvnya vіdpusknih tsіn for goods in promislovostі. Strong іndikator іnflyatsії. Vіdobrazhaє іnflyatsіyny vise on the side virobnikіv ekonomіku h (zrostannya tsіn "on vihodі" Mauger not vplivati ​​on іndeks іnflyatsії, oskіlki mozhlive znizhennya vitrat have sferі torgіvlі). Іz zagalnogo values ​​іndikatora zazvichay vidіlyayut chastinu, yak do not vrahovuє tsіni on products, alcohol, tyutyunovі virobi i palivo (tsіni on tsі products vvazhayutsya Duzhe mіnlivoyu the size).
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Got on the digit vpliv rinok.

Promislovі tsіni "on vhodі" (Producer input prices (PPI input)

Viznachaєtsya yak zmіna rіvnya tsіn on komplektuyuchі i napіvfabrikati in promislovostі (zrostannya tsіn "on vhodі" Mauger not vplivati ​​on іndeks іnflyatsії, oskіlki mozhlive znizhennya vitrat in protsesі virobnitstva).
Strong іndikator іnflyatsії. Іz zagalnogo values ​​іndikatora zazvichay vidіlyayut chastinu, yak do not vrahovuє tsіni on products, alcohol, tyutyunovі virobi i palivo (tsіni on tsі products vvazhaєtsya Duzhe mіnlivoyu the size).
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Іndikator priymaєtsya Rinko uwagi up.

Rozdrіbnі prodazhі (Retail Sales)

Іndikator rіvnya spozhivannya. Yakscho rіven spozhivannya vische rіvnya virobnitstva, the Tse zazvichay lead to zrostannya іnflyatsії. Requirements vіdznachiti, scho іndeks rozdrіbnih prodazhіv for mіsyats є Duzhe mіnlivoyu value. Serednє, three poperednі mіsyatsі, values ​​іndeksu krasche vіdobrazhaє those scho vіdbuvaєtsya.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Іndikator priymaєtsya Rinko uwagi up.

Suma vidanih kreditіv fіzichnim personages of ostannіy mіsyats (Net consumer credit)

The great importance of іndikatora Mauger oznachat about "peregrіv" ekonomіki, if spozhivachі zaymayut bіlshe kreditіv, obtain Tse neobhіdno for normal rіvnya Zhittya.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Robit obmezheny vpliv on rinok.

Torgіvelny balance (Global trade, NON-EU trade balance)

Export Rіznitsya mіzh i іmportom, bend in the tsіnah. Іndeks postupovo vtrachaє svіy vpliv on rinok, oskіlki bіlshogo values ​​nabuvayut kapіtalіv flows, rather than tovarіv. At the same time talk about zrostannya іmportu pіdvischennya rіvnya spozhivannya in kraїnі and zrostannya Export - about pіdvischennya rіvnya virobnitstva. In Velikobritanії priynyato okremo vidіlyati values ​​torgіvelnogo s balance kraїnami, yakі non Єvropeyskogo to the Union.
Vihodit schomіsyachno.
Іndikator priymaєtsya Rinko up uwagi

foreign exchange market

Foreign exchange market - a market where currencies are traded. Foreign exchange market - a huge daily volume in the forex market is several trillion U.S. dollars.

The main currencies in the currency market today are: U.S. Dollar (USD), euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), Swiss Franc (CHF) and British Pound (GBP).

In the currency market forex transactions involving the U.S. dollar accounted for 70%. This can be explained by the fact that the world is much interest in this currency. Also, the schedule of the U.S. dollar is rapidly evolving, which gives good results of his analysis.

Foreign exchange market - a lot of people, companies, banks, which have only exchanged one currency for another. Each exchange rate changes: increases or decreases it.

Foreign exchange market is a copy of the stock market with small changes. Traded on the foreign exchange currency market, rather than shares. The process of trading in the foreign exchange market is different from the process of trading in the securities market.

Access to the currency market for us, ordinary citizens, provide intermediary companies (dealing centers). Each company has its own terms of trade in the currency market. Also on the foreign exchange market can be accessed through the bank, but the deposit is much higher than the amount required to open an account with the intermediary company. But it's clear banks are more reliable intermediary companies: they insure deposits, offer many amenities, enjoy working with them both in the foreign exchange market and securities market.

Foreign exchange market presents great opportunities for earning money. Where they do make, if not where they are, and have them just on the currency market.

The main participants in the foreign exchange market are central banks, the daily transaction volume of the largest international banks in the currency market (Deutsche Bank, Barclays Bank, Union Bank of Switzerland, CityBank, Chase Manhattan Bank, Standard Chartered Bank) reaches billions of dollars. The central banks of countries go to the forex market, forex, as a rule, not for profit, and to test the stability or correction of the existing national currency, as the latter has a significant impact on the economy. Central banks have also come to the forex market through commercial banks. Although profit is not the main purpose of these banks, unprofitable transactions do not attract them, too, so the intervention of central banks typically are disguised and carried through several banks at once.

In addition to banks, an active participant in the foreign exchange market are the brokerage firms that act as an intermediary between a large number of banks, funds, commission houses, dealing centers, etc. Commercial banks and brokerage houses not only perform operations on buying and selling currencies at prices that put other active participants in the foreign exchange market, but also offer their own prices. Thus, they actively influence the pricing process and the life of the market.

Foreign exchange market is open to everyone. Our country needs a few thousand rubles to get on it (on the stock market needs more money), to sign a contract with an intermediary and trade. Of course you need to learn before trading in the forex market.

Market Forex

Market Forex (forex) is an international exchange rates, which is an integral part of the global market. At this exchange takes place purchase and sale of foreign currency that comes in due time. Market Forex (forex) is not as such address or location on a map. It is a global trading computer system, which is the movement of huge amounts of financial flows. Through this exchange is the world's trade in currencies, stocks, oil and nonferrous metals.
In this regard, besides the existing commodity and stock exchanges, there is also a currency exchange on which trades are conducted day and night, of course, except for weekends and some holidays. All this became possible due to the global Internet. The main participants of the Forex exchange are usually central and commercial international banks, the various companies operating in the export and import.
Market Forex (FX) - is a kind of decentralized system, whose members are united by various communication channels. The emergence and development of communication led to the emergence of a new "remote" type of trade - trade with electronic dealing systems, which are gradually replacing traditional telephone dealing.
Forex exchange can make a purchase, such as currency Euro (EUR) for the Swiss Franc (CHF) and Japanese Yen (JPY). Movement and transactions made on the Forex exchange are decisive factors in the ratio of freely convertible world currency exchange rates. All currencies used for trade, are present on it in the form of currency pairs with a floating exchange rate.
Trading on the forex market is simply huge scale, and it happens that only one day, the volume of currency in the Forex can be up to three trillion dollars, which exceeds the trading volume on stock exchanges in almost fifty times. Over the past few years, trading in the forex exchange has acquired great popularity. Today it is a very popular and lucrative activity. Approximately 80% of transactions made on the stock exchange Forex - is transactions made for speculative profit when playing on the difference in exchange rates.
Market Forex (FX) to date of all existing exchanges is the largest and most global. Here, participants are given a unique opportunity to quickly earn. It is, in fact, has no minimum deposit to start trading since that currency as tools of trade, have the highest level of liquidity. Thus, in forex exchange can not occur a situation where there is no transaction for any contractor, as the commission stock trading.

Investors ran out of money

"Bidder will not run out of money" - the motto was the last week in the stock market. It is the lack of available funds from investors, most experts explain the continuing fall in the index of First Securities Trading System (PFTS), which for the period from April 11 to 17 fell by 4.1%.

"The volume of the market is very small, and if we ignore the rating of the transaction, you get even a paltry sum for Ukraine", - said a senior trader of investment company Foyil Securities Vadim Samar. Indeed, the activity of market participants last week was extremely weak - the average daily trading volume in comparison with the March figures fell by almost 2 times - up to 34 million hryvnia.

This situation, according to Vadim Samara, due to the almost complete absence of large buyers in the market. "Americans are frightened by a probable recession, European and Ukrainian assets are now almost no influx of fresh client money and assets Ukrainian brokers is not enough to grow or at least a substantial market support," - he explains.

In this situation, Ukrainian traders continue to focus mainly on the dynamics of U.S. stock indices. At the same time in the domestic market has formed "interesting" trend: all the negative news in the world our brokers act out in full, and a positive, coming from Wall Street, often remains unnoticed by them.

Because of this insensitivity to the entire Ukrainian market is a good last week, significantly lost their senior colleagues. Thus, the U.S. index Dow Jones IA for the period from April 11 to 17 rose by 0.3%, the Japanese NIKKEI 225 rose 3.4%, the FTSE 100 rose English by 0.2%, Russia's RTS - by 0.8%.

In an index First Securities Trading System (PFTS) is not much turned out to follow the global trends - for the period from April 11 to 15, he lost more than 5%, and 16-17, the number could grow by 1%. "Ukrainian brokers can, and would like to play a positive from foreign markets, but lack of money does not allow to maintain sustained growth," - says Samar.

With such a total lack of money in the domestic stock market investing virtual version shown is not the best results. Total losses amounted to more than 18,000 hryvnia. The maximum loss suffered "aggressive" - ​​it fell by 11.5 thousand hryvnia, "Balanced" lost in the price of 10.9 thousand, while the "conservative" was "in the black" - he has earned almost 4000 hryvnia.

"Conservative". Thanks to the dollar

This portfolio of their success is entirely due to falling dollar, which last week established a regular anti-record. Thus, the dollar / euro crept close to the psychologically important mark of 1.6, reaching at auction on Wednesday, the values ​​of 1.5967. Such a rapid decline of the U.S. currency will automatically lead to higher prices of gold on world markets - almost 3%. As a result of currency "swing" "conservative" rose by 0.8%, or 3950 hryvnia. It is natural that the main contribution to the success of the portfolio invested in gold and euro deposit - they earned 2.8 hryvnia and 1000, respectively.

"Balanced". Dropped everything except the "Aval"

Almost all of the "blue chips" of the Ukrainian stock market last week, lost in the price. As a result, all of the securities included in the "Balanced", grew only the shares of Raiffeisen Bank Aval - they went up by 0.6% symbolic. However, the growth of "Aval" does not mean that investors revise their attitude to Ukrainian banks. For example, shares of another major financial institution - USB's - last week, "sunk" by 3.8%, significantly greater than average market rates.

In addition to USB's, were among the outsiders Paper electricity companies - "Centrenergo" and "Zakhidenergo" fell by 3.5 and 4.5% respectively. "Viktor Yushchenko at the end of last week blocked the privatization of four energy companies - this is an extremely negative news for the stock market. Privatization and conducting systemic reforms can significantly increase the cost of electricity companies. Now everyone understands that rely on their privatization before the presidential election is not worth it" - said a senior analyst at investment company "Syncom" Andrew Petruk.

Heavily sank Paper "Ukrnafta" - by 2.7%. On April 16 was scheduled meeting of the shareholders of the company, but it once again did not take place. However, market participants are reluctant to consider the failure of the meeting as a major factor falling stock price, "Ukrnafta". "The main reason for reducing the company's market capitalization is a protracted conflict between the government and management" Ukrnafta "(controlled group" Private. "-" CASE ")," - says the analyst of investment company KBC Securities Ukraine Yuri Alekseenko.

The main loser

The biggest losses last week, suffered because of the wording "Aggressive" - ​​"minus" 11,5 thousand hryvnia. However, there were in the portfolio shares, which, despite the negative market trend, "managed to" rise in price. The absolute leader of growth were paper Rodovid Bank (+ 4.4%). "Most likely, it's just a technical rebound after a significant drop in prices for shares of the bank a week ago. No corporate news was not on it," - says the analyst of investment company "Troika Dialog Ukraine" Eugene Grebenyuk.

Another issuer whose shares are rising in price, despite the overall negative - Southern Mining. During the week he went up by 3.8%. Recall from the beginning of the shares of the issuer became one of the few that rose in price by 17%. The reasons for the success of market YuGOK well known: 65%-ing iron ore price hike, increasing the transparency of the company with the arrival of its shareholders, "Evraz" and buying co-owners of the company ("Eurasia" and "Metinvest") shares YuGOK. "Papers of the Southern Mining last week increased the price for the same reasons as the month and two years ago. Some important news related to the company, was not" - says the analyst of investment company "Millennium Capital," Yury Ryzhkov.

The remaining shares in the "Aggressive" lost in the price. The main "losers" were paper machinery sector, "AvtoKrAZ" (-8.5%), "Azov-obschemasha" (-6.3%) and "UkrAvto" (-4.8%). Not the best has stood out last week for "Dneprospetsstal", whose shares fell 6.6%. Common among these issuers that specialized analysts see little reason for this fall, and link them with the general market failure of negative trends.

Higher Mathematics "in banking"

As a customer chooses, if a bank gives loans at 12% per annum plus a 0.1% monthly commission and the other has a clean 13% stake? "People often give the wrong answer to the question of which of these two proposals is most profitable," - says Samchenko. When a customer sees that the bank offers a monthly fee of 0.1%, then multiply it by 12 months and receives 1.2% per year, and then decides that he is fit. In fact, in the third, fourth and fifth year of the loan committee is more than the fees on the loan itself, because it is superimposed on the original loan amount, rather than the actual debt.

Interest rate - the main tool in the fight against the bank for the customer. The logical is the fact that the borrower goes to the bank, whose interest rate is lower. Therefore, with increasing competition in the lending market turned active play on the lowering of rates, and the basic earnings of the bank began to lay additional charges, for which the average buyer does not pay attention.

To take a "zero" credit and not pay a premium of 30-60% per year, you should ask the bank what is the size of a one-time loan fees, which sometimes reaches 10% of the value of the goods, as well as the monthly payment for the loan servicing (1% to 3% of the loan). Also, the bank can hide their earnings in different types of compulsory insurance, which is about 1% of the cost. Also, keep in mind about the tangible penalties for late payment of the monthly fee for consumer credit. The penalty can be up to 36% of the amount of monthly payment!

Overpayment, in addition to the interest rate will be lower when it comes to car loans or real estate, because such loans are secured. According to the company ARMA, the difference between the declared and real interest rate on such loans is 1-2% per year. Therefore, when a bank issues a loan to buy a car or an apartment at 12% per annum, to be understood that the real cost of credit will be 13-14% per annum.

The most expensive - consumer credits, even though they, ironically, often with an attractive advertising "0% APR." Samchenko explains that this is due to high risks of failure to return the loan, especially if it is issued without collateral. "About 20-30% of consumer loans do not return, therefore, insuring, financiers lay high profitability, which reaches 40-50%," - he said.

Magazine "Novinar" to determine the real cost of consumer credit, trying to take out a loan to buy a refrigerator whose value amounted to 3500 UAH. for 12 months without a down payment in the shop "Technodom." The experiment showed that the final cost of the refrigerator will be 4200-5000 USD., Ie for the year will increase by 20-45%.

A vicious circle

Credit brokers are benefiting from this situation and for a fee to help customers choose a bank with the most favorable terms and to identify all the pitfalls, invisible to the "non-financial 'eyes.

Most often, brokers seek people who want to take out a loan to buy a car or real estate or commercial loans. "Maintenance of consumer credit is more expensive than the income from them. For loans up to 10 thousand UAH. we do not undertake "- recognized Samchenko.

Today, Ukraine has about 10 companies that specialize in credit intermediation. Cost of services depends on the type of lending. Taking a loan to buy an apartment or land, the customer will pay the mediator from 1% to 5% of the loan, car loan will cost 1-7%, while consumer credit can be worth even 20% of the loan amount.

But credit consulting has a dark side. The market works so-called black brokers who are not guided by the interests of the customer and the bank. They give potential borrowers to unfavorable conditions in a particular bank and charge for this service.

An alternative to banks for consumer lending market are credit unions - non-profit cooperative associations of citizens which are based on a common place of residence or work.

"The Union is formed from a one-time membership fee (1 hryvnia) and compulsory unit (mortgage, which is refunded when the person leaves the Union). Uniform Union Foundation, with the help of which are loans, are deposits of its members, "- explains Peter Kozinets, president of the National Association of Credit Unions of Ukraine (UNASCU).

The interest rate of credit unions is very individual, rates can vary from 15% to 60% per year. Kozinets convinced that these figures are always final, "because in the credit union no commissions or other payments for services."

But credit unions do not go beyond micro-credit, which is 60% of their income. According to the statistics of the National Association of Credit Unions, as a rule, the amount of the loan does not exceed 3000 USD., And give her no more than a year. Although some credit unions also provide large loans to buy housing or small business management, but in the words of Kozintsev, better to take such loans in the banks, because their life is cheaper and they give out loans for a longer term.

How to avoid becoming a victim of bank tricks:
Do not take the credit while the bank will not give a copy of the credit agreement.
Before you sign a credit agreement, carefully review it.
Learn about the size of a one-time fee for the issuance of credit and monthly payment for loan servicing.
Ask whether there were penalties for late payment of monthly fee.
Ask the bank to call the monthly payment and total amount of overpayment on the loan.