The most profitable actions: whether it is necessary to invest in stock market in June.

Monthly experts of leading Ukrainian investment companies predict, what actions of the company will most of all rise in price next month. Thus analysts give reason for the point of view the facts.

At the end месяца  Корреспондент.biz  публикует  the report on on how many percent rose in price or the actions specified by experts in a month fell in price.

One or two analysts who in the forecast were closest to real data on monthly results, remain among experts the next month and again do the forecast.

This month participation in a forecast accept: analyst ИК  Altana Kapital  Александр  Kushnarev, deputy director of department of investment consulting of Foyil Securities  Olga Maltsev и  analyst of the Broker house of Otkrytiye  Leonid Belozersky.

It should be noted that the stock market of Ukraine shows the last weeks very volatilny dynamics and decrease in quotations in this connection many experts don't risk is sharp to give forecasts. However this month in the Korrespondent.Biz project agreed to take participation the deputy director of department of investment consulting of Foyil Securities Olga Maltsev and Alexey Klimchuk from the TASK YOKES analytical department.

Forecast for June 2012 года: 

Olga Maltsev, deputy director of department of investment consulting of Foyil Securities

Action: Hartsyzsky pipe plant (HRTR) & nbsp;

Justification: As the situation in domestic stock market remains unstable, we can recommend purchase of the Ukrainian actions at formation only long-term портфеля.  In our opinion, triggers for growth of cost of liquid papers in June aren't present. However it is necessary to take into consideration the fact of a repro-reality of the market as the reason of possible emergence of a technical rebound which doesn't need to be confused to formation of a new trend. Besides on world trading platforms the nervousness caused by fears of rather further destiny of EU proceeds. In this regard we consider that in June of the market actions of Hartsizsky pipe plant (HRTR) will better look. It is connected with expectation of payment of dividends эмитентом  of 727 million UAH, or 0,28 UAH. on акцию  with otsechka date реес a Torah on June 14, 2012. After the specified date of the quotation on paper possibly essentially will decrease.

Alexey Klimchuk, TASK YOKES analytical department

Акция:  Центрэнерго (CEEN)

Justification:  At the current market conditions, the majority of domestic actions remain under bear pressure and, despite an essential pereprodanost continue to become cheaper. In our opinion, current month Tsentrenergo actions can show the greatest growth, privatization which auction of a controlling stake is appointed to June that can warm up interest to actions, as from small speculators, and large investors. Moreover, landslide falling of quotations of Tsentrenergo which is observed the last month of the auction, had no strong fundamental basis. Despite unprofitable 1кв2012 years, in the second quarter we expect profit at level of 96 million UAH., in connection with seasonal growth of the price of sale e/e in ORE made thermal power plant. And following the results of a year, according to our forecasts, the company will get profit at level of 173 million UAH, but thus volume of production will slightly decrease. Considering prompt falling of actions for last month, and estimating fair value of the company, we assume that the price of privatization will be above the current market price of 80-90 %.

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As it was reported, following the results of the auction for May, 2012 an index of the Ukrainian actions, рассчитываемый  Ukrainian exchange, & nbsp; понизился  на -26,14 %  с  1 399,14  до  1 033,47  point. The total amount of the auction in May grew by UB на  32,61 %  and составил  2 811 562 245  UAH, and the total of transactions increased на  79,27 % that составило  248 489.

May was marked for the Ukrainian market by long falling. Abrupt dive was observed to the middle of month then the market managed to brake falling. & nbsp; at the beginning of the third decade even growth was observed, however it appeared fragile, and the index of UB closed month continuous распродажами.  & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;

Volume of the auction on the forward market of the Ukrainian exchange in a month составил  1 915 139 558  UAH. (1 728 101 contracts) that на  81,38 %  more than last month. The number of transactions grew на  116,09 %  and составило  197 339. Volume of the auction by securities in a month составил  896 422 686  UAH. (from them volume of the auction by actions - 791 638 771 UAH.), and number of the transactions concluded at the exchange in May, составило  51 150.


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This material has exclusively information character and can't be considered as the recommendation, the offer or motivation to get or sell securities, and also other financial instruments. The estimates given in this forecast reflect personal opinion of analysts and aren't the recommendation to purchase or sale of these or those securities. This material doesn't express opinion of edition.

Financial forecast for June.

The end of spring — the beginning of summer appeared "hot" for the financial markets of Europe. "Fever" because of statements of the Greek authorities for a possible exit of the country from euro zone there became aggravated. Oils added statements of the French president to fire that the European Union should continue to borrow money, getting into new debts. We decided to take an interest, how these events can strike on our pocket. Besides, we asked experts, whether it is necessary to wait for good news in June — the beginning of July. Answers to these questions — in our "Investportfel".

The DOLLAR is STABLE. In comparison with the beginning of May the selling rate of cash dollar "was a little tightened" — for 7 kopeks, with 8,04 to 8,11 UAH/$. As the head of department of planning and budgeting of «Bank ERDE» Rostislav Beregy explained, it became a consequence of its "dancing" in the interbank market: sometimes it reached a mark of 8,10 UAH/$. And on Mezhbank, in turn, the dollar was in the price because in May less currency came to the country, than in April.

EURO: EVEN CHEAPER. As well as our experts predicted, problems of eurozone and disagreement of the authorities of the European countries rendered to eurocurrency an ill turn. The whole month its course fell concerning dollar. For May of euro in Ukraine began to sell for 55 kopeks cheaper: its course» fell in exchangers with 10,67 to 10,12 UAH/euros. And since the beginning of June the eurocurrency rose in price for 15 kopeks, to 10,27 UAH/euros. But analysts look at these insignificant fluctuations skeptically. In their opinion, soon euro will become cheaper still.

DEPOSITS: MONTH OF CALM

In May, as well as expected experts, according to National Bank data, short-term deposits (for 1 — 6 month) in hryvnia rose in price a little, on 0,3 %: with 16,3 to 16,6 % per annum, and in currency remained at the same level — 6,7 % per annum. Thus long-term deposits, contrary to forecasts, "gave" in the price a little. "Long" (for 9 — 18 months) deposits fell in price: in hryvnia for 1 % — with 18,4 to 17,4 %, and in currency — for 0,4 %, with 8,4 to 8,0 % per annum. READ IN MORE DETAIL

GOLD: GROWTH IS POSSIBLE

Forecasts of our experts came true and in the gold market. In May its price constantly fluctuated, but month as a whole finished decrease. And this falling was historically the longest for the last years. The gram of yellow metal in Ukraine in a month fell in price on 20 UAH — with 445 to 425 UAH/g However, at the beginning of June it did attempts to grow in the price for some hryvnias. But they didn't crown success — gold cost now "was again rolled away" to level of 425 UAH/g.

The dollar exchange rate jumped up up.

The euro exchange rate to dollar decreases during the auction of Friday - investors are reserved by the American currency possessing the status of a reliable asset, waiting for results of parliamentary elections of Greece on June 17, data of the auction testify.

By 18.40 Moscow time euro fell in price to dollar to 1,2619 dollars for euro about 1,2633 dollars for euro a day earlier. To Japanese currency the dollar exchange rate fell to 78,74 yens for dollar against 79,35 yens for dollar by the end of the previous auction. The dollar exchange rate to a basket of six currencies of the countries - the main trading partners of the USA decreased by 0,17 % - to 81,74 points.

In case of a victory of Left-wing radical coalition СИРИЗА the risk of a rupture of agreements of Greece with the international creditors that can cause the exit of the state first in the history from eurozone is great. "The price of this exit will be too high both for Greece, and for the currency union. The banking system of the country will fall off. There will be a threat of distribution of debt crisis on other economy", - the analyst of Barclays Capital Antonio Garcia Pascual (Antonio Garcia Pascual) quoted by MarketWatch agency argues.

At the same time, appeal of dollar decreased after an exit of a fresh portion of statistical data in the USA, testifying to remaining problems at the largest economy of the world a little. Industrial production in the country decreased last month by 0,1 % though growth by the same figure was expected.

The index of consumer moods reflecting degree of trust of households to economy, in June went down, by an initial assessment, to 74,1 points about 79,3 points in May. Analysts assumed that the indicator will fall only to 77,5 points.

"I do not know, the average American is how informed on a situation in Europe, however at investors this subject constantly is in the attention center, as well as problems on a labor market", - the senior economist of Ameriprise Financial Inc told. in Detroit Russell Prays (Russell Price).

Why to Greeks Apocalypse?

Financial crisis in the European Union, apparently, will soon develop into crisis of relationship.
Such conclusions involuntarily come to mind when you read a tape of world news. So, one of these days Greece riveted again attention of all planet on the modest person: the authorities of the country decided to hold a referendum during which should be made the decision – to accept or not to accept the anti-recessionary help from European Union member countries.

Let's remind, a week ago at EU summit in Brussels the European leaders in a course more than ten-hour meeting developed the plan of rescue of Greece from a default. In particular, it was offered to write off 50 % of debts or 100 billion euro at the expense of banks and other private creditors. Besides, there was a speech about increase in the second program of the help of Greece in the sum with 100 to 130 billion euro.

As a whole, many politicians and experts apprehended these anti-recessionary mechanisms positively, having called these decisions essential break in fight against the European crisis. So, the prime minister of Greece Yorgos Papandreou noted that the state managed to avoid the worst scenario of succession of events. «We have a possibility to settle a score past. From the Greek people at last remove cargo and transfer it on banks», - the prime minister noted.

However, apparently, reaction of the Greek authorities appeared only temporary mask, after all already literally in couple of days after the Bruxelles arrangements of Athena struck pose and declared convocation of a national referendum. What forced Greeks, roughly speaking, to rear?

Everything is simple: in a barrel of honey of anti-recessionary offers for Greece the European leaders added also an essential spoon of tar in the form of introduction of control over the implementation of the budgetary program of the country for the purpose of ensuring the correct use of the new credits with them. In other words, though EU also threw to Greeks rolling in debts a saving financial circle, Europe decided to provide to the country and "navigator" who not only wouldn't allow to spend money in vain, but also would conduct the Greek ship on accurately set anti-recessionary way.

Such plan of rescue suited to Greeks obviously not to taste, after all control strengthening over the country from EU actually would turn Greece into the semi-dependent state. Here Hellas also decided to use force of a national voice in fight for the freedoms. In principle, it is possible to understand the point of view of Greeks.

However there is one essential "but". Economic instability of Greece can lead to the second wave of world financial crisis. Therefore taking into account so high risks Greeks also could bite tongue. After all, посудите who is guilty in deepening of debt crisis of Eurozone? In many respects, Greece, is more true – its indiscipline.

The fact which some time ago shocked political elite of Europe can become confirmation to that. It is a question of scandalous jugglings Greeks of financial reports касаемо states of the economy of the country. In other words, what turns out? Eurozone and IMF fondly helped money to poor Greeks, and those, in turn, quietly lived at the expense of external loans, not especially aspiring to carry out recommendations of creditors касаемо a country conclusion from crisis. In this light the decision of the European politicians on control strengthening over improvement of the Greek economy is absolutely logical.

In the light of the difficult relations of EU and Greece the new heat which poured out in the statement for carrying out by Greeks of a national referendum, - already surprises nobody. However, as for a long time it is clear, ellinets – the people cunning. Respectively, they also "swagger" with an ulterior motive. There is an opinion: by means of a referendum and other mechanisms Greeks want to bargain. They pursue what purposes as a result? The first: EU should give carte blanche to the country. The second: big privileges, for example, in the form of write-off of 100 % of debts should be provided to Greeks.

And why also isn't present? Taking into account that today the external debt of Greece makes about 350 billion euro, - it is clear that on accounts it would be desirable to pay not especially. By the way, if this fabulous sum to divide into all citizens of Greece (the population – about 11 million people), it will turn out that each of them – from the baby to the old man – owes about 31 thousand euros. Here also leaves, each citizen of Greece is terribly interested in release from a debt yoke.

What to tell? In the desires and inability to distinguish a reality from a fantasy, the Greek authorities, apparently, went too far. Already today the initiative of Greeks concerning carrying out a national referendum brought into shock not only the European politicians, but also world economists. After all if Greece refuses the anti-recessionary plan which developed EU for it, such step a priori can bring in a default not only this country. On a domino effect Italy and Spain can fall down in an abyss of crisis and other problem economy of Eurozone, first of all. Also that then? The European Union hardly will bear so powerful blow on the - relative - stability. Whether France and Germany can with financial support of IMF and such countries, such as, China to prevent the beginning of the second wave of world financial crisis? Not fact. And it can quite become the beginning of the European economic apocalypse.

About that self-admiration of Greeks can cost much to the whole world, says, for example, that fact that the euro exchange rate already devaluates, and stock markets of the same of the USA already seriously gave. And it only the first reaction of world economy to the statement of Greeks about carrying out a national referendum. And for that to wait, if Greece really refuses the European plan of rescue? Even it is terribly to present. As though as a result it was not necessary to give up as a bad job the idea of expediency of existence of the European Union …

However hardly leaders of EU will allow Greeks to realize such scenario of succession of events. It is thought, patience of the European politicians already on an outcome. Therefore their reaction to threats from Greece for certain won't keep itself waiting long. As possibility to discuss the arisen problems at heads of states of EU will appear soon at the summit of the Big twenty.

How to transfer - choose wisely.

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Russian banks are not ready to return to the crisis.

Banks of the Russian Federation were not ready to repeat the crisis events that occurred in 2008. It is reported by the newspaper "Vedomosti", referring to the stress test of the Bank of Russia.For example, if the repeated shocks to the market, almost a third of Russian banks have violated regulations of the Central Bank, after which the regulator would have to deny them a license. For example, a stress test of the Central Bank showed that in this scenario, the banking system could lose almost half of its capital.The scenario laid in a stress test of the Bank of Russia provides an outflow of deposits at the level of 10-20% (as it was in October 2008). Stock indices have to fail at 50% and the ruble - to depreciate by 20% (in 2008, RTS and MICEX lost 71.4 and 66.5%, respectively, and the ruble has depreciated by 16.8%).The Central Bank has estimated that due to the increase of the delay of loans banks could lose almost a quarter of the capital. In addition, the depreciation of securities the banks will deprive another 12.7% of the capital, and the outflow of customer and interbank lending takes another 13.8% of the capital. As a result, 321 of the bank capital adequacy ratio falls below the minimum level of 10%. At these banks, the Central Bank estimates, accounts for 50.8% of banking system assets.Experts point out that raising capital in the banks seem to spell a loved one, when in the course are any tricks.

What are the competitions for Forex Traders.

Perhaps those who had to deal with the Forex market, surely heard about the competition of traders. Now there are many brokers and dealing centers conduct a variety of enticing tournaments, as this is a unique marketing tool to attract new customers. However, not every trader is able to understand the conditions of competition, which sometimes do not quite match the description. So, let's see with what are forex contests.Dealing centers conducting competitions, which can be divided into certain groups. The first group - the simplest contests is used, as they say, to "disperse". These contests are clear even for the absolute beginner market, and tend to have a modest prize. Such programs do not require traders to specific knowledge and experience. In fact, to participate in such tournaments, and knowledge is not needed - most importantly have a passion and luck.The second group of competitions designed to have an experienced and skilled Forex traders - people who are developing their own trading strategies, scripts, indicators, etc. Typically, these contests have several stages, for example - competition for the best trading robot or trading strategy. Anyone whose product shows the best trading results in a certain period of time and receive the grand prize, which is not comparable with those that involve "unpretentious" contests.And the last group for those traders who are really professionals and they are no longer interested in trading for themselves, and plans to receive the management of large capital. For these traders, major brokerage firms offer to try his hand on the PAMM-accounts. Such conditions do contests rather qualifying tournaments, the results of which, the company selected professional managers, to expand the list of trustees. The main prize in the competition - serious capital, percentage of profits, etc.